Black Friday supply chain: the stock lands in October, the sales peak in December
Black Friday is a retail event, but for the supply chain it ends in October. Here is what eight years of US Census retail data show about when shelves fill up, when they empty, and the last date a container can leave Asia and still make Black Friday 2026.
Key facts
- Black Friday 2026 is Fri 27 Nov 2026; Cyber Monday is Mon 30 Nov 2026.
- US retailers added $56bn of inventory between August and October 2025 (+6.7%), then ran it back down to $837bn by December.
- On the 2018–2025 average, inventories peak in Oct; sales peak in December. The gap between the two is the peak season.
- Clothing stores do 22.4% of their annual sales in November and December, and December sales run 56% above an average month.
- E-commerce sold 31% more in December 2025 than in an average 2025 month.
- A typical Black Friday cart of 12 products is 24% made-in-China by value on 2025 US import data, down from 58% in 2024; Vietnam is now the biggest origin (34%).
- For goods in a US warehouse two weeks before Black Friday, the last Shanghai–Los Angeles sailing is around 19 Oct. As of Sat 24 Oct 2026, 6 of the 7 routes below have already passed their date.
Which retail categories depend most on Black Friday and the holiday season?
Each cell is that month’s sales as a share of the category’s average month (100 = a normal month), averaged across 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. 2020 and 2021 are left out because lockdowns and stimulus distorted the calendar. Outlined cells are each row’s peak.
| Category | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clothing & accessories storesNAICS 448 · Nov+Dec = 22.4% of year | 72 | 81 | 97 | 95 | 104 | 95 | 98 | 104 | 89 | 96 | 113 | 156 |
| Sporting goods, hobby, music & booksNAICS 451 · Nov+Dec = 21.1% of year | 84 | 80 | 97 | 92 | 97 | 99 | 98 | 110 | 94 | 94 | 110 | 143 |
| Electronics & appliance storesNAICS 443 · Nov+Dec = 21.0% of year | 94 | 89 | 97 | 90 | 96 | 95 | 97 | 100 | 95 | 95 | 116 | 136 |
| Nonstore retailers (e-commerce)NAICS 454 · Nov+Dec = 20.5% of year | 94 | 87 | 96 | 94 | 99 | 93 | 98 | 98 | 93 | 102 | 115 | 130 |
| General merchandise storesNAICS 452 · Nov+Dec = 19.5% of year | 88 | 86 | 97 | 95 | 102 | 99 | 99 | 103 | 94 | 100 | 108 | 126 |
| Total retail tradeNAICS 44-45 · Nov+Dec = 18.0% of year | 90 | 87 | 100 | 99 | 105 | 100 | 102 | 104 | 97 | 101 | 103 | 113 |
| Health & personal care storesNAICS 446 · Nov+Dec = 17.7% of year | 97 | 91 | 100 | 97 | 101 | 98 | 98 | 102 | 99 | 105 | 100 | 112 |
| Food & beverage storesNAICS 445 · Nov+Dec = 16.8% of year | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 101 | 101 | 101 | 101 |
Food stores barely move (101 in December). Clothing, sporting goods and electronics more than double their slowest month. For these categories a stockout in late November is not a lost day of sales, it is a lost share of the year.
When do retailers stock up for Black Friday?
The stock arrives first. General merchandise inventories (department stores, warehouse clubs, supercentres) climb from August and peak in Oct; sales peak in December, and by then inventory has dropped below its yearly average.
General merchandise stores: inventory index vs sales index by month
Inventory index peaks at 111 in Oct; sales index peaks at 126 in December, when inventory falls to 96.
Months of stock on hand, by month
The inventory-to-sales ratio is how many months of sales the shelves and warehouses hold. Clothing stores carry about 2.7 months going into the autumn and finish December with 1.37.
| Category | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clothing | 2.98 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 2.41 | 2.17 | 2.37 | 2.32 | 2.21 | 2.67 | 2.58 | 2.16 | 1.37 |
| General merchandise | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 1.39 | 1.04 |
| Total retail | 1.48 | 1.54 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.30 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.46 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 1.23 |
How big is the pre-holiday inventory build?
Total US retail inventories, monthly, from January 2025. September to November are highlighted. In 2025 the build added $56bn in two months. In Aug 2026 stocks were already 4.9% above a year earlier, so the 2026 peak season started from a higher base.
US total retail inventories by month, January 2025 to Aug 2026
Inventories rise from $831bn in August 2025 to $887bn in October 2025 and fall to $837bn in December 2025. Aug 2026: $872bn.
Last shipping dates from Asia for Black Friday 2026
Working back from Fri 27 Nov 2026: goods should be in the distribution centre 14 days before (by Fri 13 Nov 2026), after about 5 days of port handling and customs and 5 days of inland transport. Asia–Europe routes also show the date with a 12-day Cape of Good Hope diversion, the routing most carriers have used since the Red Sea attacks began in late 2023.
| Route | Sea days | Last sailing | With Cape diversion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Busan → Los Angeles | 12 | passed | – |
| Shanghai → Los Angeles | 15 | passed | – |
| Hamburg → New York | 10 | – | |
| Mumbai → Rotterdam | 18 | passed | |
| Singapore → Rotterdam | 22 | passed | |
| Shanghai → Rotterdam | 26 | passed | |
| Shanghai → New York | 26 | passed | – |
Where does your Black Friday cart come from?
Pick what you plan to buy and what you expect to pay. Each item is split across the countries the US actually imported it from in 2025, weighted by your price, so you can see which supply chains your Black Friday depends on and how much that changed in a year.
US imports of typical Black Friday products, by origin
| Product | US imports 2025 | Top origins | China share 2024 → 2025 | Customs value / unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SmartphoneHS 851713 | $52.4bn | China 45%, India 42%, Vietnam 11% | 81% → 45% | $372 |
| LaptopHS 847130 | $49.3bn | Vietnam 61%, China 18%, Thailand 9% | 66% → 18% | $492 |
| ToysHS 950300 | $14.7bn | China 67%, Vietnam 13%, Mexico 9% | 76% → 67% | – |
| TelevisionHS 852872 | $11.0bn | Mexico 82%, Vietnam 14%, China 2% | 10% → 2% | $265 |
| Video game consoleHS 950450 | $6.7bn | Vietnam 56%, China 25%, Japan 6% | 86% → 25% | – |
| Headphones / earbudsHS 851830 | $6.5bn | Vietnam 67%, China 20%, Malaysia 3% | 48% → 20% | $19 |
| Cosmetics & skincareHS 330499 | $5.1bn | South Korea 28%, Canada 16%, France 15% | 6% → 5% | – |
| Cotton T-shirtHS 610910 | $4.9bn | Bangladesh 13%, Nicaragua 11%, Honduras 10% | 6% → 4% | $2 |
| Sweater (synthetic)HS 611030 | $4.8bn | Vietnam 18%, China 12%, Honduras 8% | 21% → 12% | $6 |
| Sneakers (pair)HS 640411 | $4.3bn | Vietnam 65%, Indonesia 20%, China 11% | 16% → 11% | $19/pair |
| Leather handbagHS 420221 | $2.3bn | Italy 35%, France 26%, Vietnam 9% | 3% → 3% | $78 |
| Air fryer / countertop ovenHS 851660 | $2.3bn | Mexico 32%, China 22%, Thailand 14% | 38% → 22% | $64 |
Black Friday supply chain: frequently asked questions
When is Black Friday 2026?
Black Friday 2026 is Friday 27 November 2026, the day after US Thanksgiving (Thursday 26 November). Cyber Monday follows on 30 November 2026.
When do retailers stock up for Black Friday?
In September and October. US Census data show total retail inventories rising from $831bn in August 2025 to $887bn in October 2025, a build of about $56bn (6.7%) in two months, before falling back to $837bn by December as holiday sales drew stock down.
When is the last shipping date from China for Black Friday?
For goods that must be in a US distribution centre two weeks before Black Friday 2026, the last container sailing from Shanghai to Los Angeles is around Mon 19 Oct 2026, allowing 15 days at sea plus about 10 days for port, customs and inland transport. Shanghai to New York needs to sail by about Thu 8 Oct 2026.
Which retail categories depend most on the Black Friday and holiday season?
Clothing stores, with November and December averaging 22.4% of annual sales and December running at 156% of an average month. Electronics stores (21.0%), sporting goods, hobby and book stores (21.1%) and e-commerce (20.5%) follow; an even year would put any two months at 16.7%.
How much stock do clothing retailers hold before the holidays?
US clothing stores hold on average 2.98 months of sales in inventory at their pre-season peak (Jan, excluding January), versus 1.37 months in December once the holiday selling has cleared the shelves.
How much of a Black Friday shopping cart comes from China?
For a typical cart of 12 common Black Friday products (electronics, toys, apparel, beauty), about 24% of the value matches US imports from China in 2025, down from 58% in 2024, based on UN Comtrade data weighted by shelf price. Vietnam is the largest single origin at 34%, and Asian countries together supply about 79%.
Where do smartphones, laptops and TVs sold in the US come from?
In 2025: smartphones mostly from China (45%) and India (42%); laptops from Vietnam (61%); televisions from Mexico (82%). China's share of US laptop imports fell from 66% in 2024 to 18% in 2025.
How much does an imported smartphone cost at the US border?
The average customs value of a smartphone imported into the US in 2025 was about $372, according to UN Comtrade (total import value divided by units). That is before duties, freight inside the US, distribution and retail margin.
Are US retailers holding more inventory in 2026?
Yes. Total US retail inventories were $872bn in Aug 2026, 4.9% above Aug 2025, which means the pre-holiday stock build started from a higher base than last year.
Sources and method
- Sales: US Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey, not seasonally adjusted, retrieved via FRED (series RSCCASN, RSSGHBMSN, RSEASN, RSNSRN, RSGMSN, RSXFSN, RSHPCSN, RSDBS).
- Imports by origin: UN Comtrade public API, US-reported imports for consumption, customs value, HS6, 2024–2025. Cart share = sum of (quantity × your price × origin share of US imports). Customs value per unit = import value / reported units, only where units are pieces or pairs.
- Inventories and ratios: same survey, series MRTSIM44000USN, MRTSIM452USN, MRTSIM448USN, MRTSIR448USN, MRTSIR452USN, MRTSIR44000USN.
- Seasonal index: each month divided by that year’s monthly average, then averaged across 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. 2020–2021 excluded.
- Census reports calendar months. Black Friday and Cyber Monday fall in late November, but much of the “holiday” demand lands in December; the data cannot isolate the single weekend.
- Scope: US retailers only. European and Italian retailers follow a similar Q4 pattern but are not in this dataset.
- Licence: page and CSV CC BY 4.0. Census data are public domain.